Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests to screen for at-risk MASH-An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a need to reduce the screen failure rate (SFR) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) clinical trials (MASH+F2-3; MASH+F4) and identify people with high-risk MASH (MASH+F2-4) in clinical practice. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive tests (NITs) screening approaches for these target conditions. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported. RESULTS: We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.

Recurrent splanchnic and extrasplanchnic thrombotic events in patients with non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis associated with local factors.

One third of recent non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis are associated with local factors. The risk of rethrombosis after anticoagulation withdrawal is unknown. We aimed to determine factors associated with splanchnic or extrasplanchnic new thrombotic events in that setting. METHODS: Retrospective study including recent non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis associated with local factors. High and low prothrombotic risk factors, prespecified according to Riport study criteria, were assessed. Quantitative and qualitative variables are presented as median (inter-quartile range), and absolute and relative frequencies respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox models assessed the influence of different variables on the occurrence of a new thrombotic event. RESULTS: At baseline, 83/154 (53.9%) had at least one prothrombotic factor including 50 (32.5%) high-risk and 33 (21.4%) low-risk prothrombotic factors. Oestrogen containing contraception was discontinued in all patients. During follow up, 63/140 (45%) patients had at least one prothrombotic factor, including 47 (33.6%) with a high risk, and 16 (11.4%) a low risk prothrombotic factor. Seventeen new thrombotic events occurred after a median follow-up of 52 (IQR 14-62) (min-max 3.0-69.0) months. New thrombosis were associated with high risk factors (HR 3.817, 95% CI [1.303-11.180], p= 0.015), but inversely related to recanalization (HR 0.222, 95% CI [0.078-0.635], p=0.005) and anticoagulation (HR 0.976, 95% CI [0.956-0.995], p=0.016). When a high-risk factor was present a new thrombotic event occurred in 7.4%, 14.6%, 14.6% and 28.8% of patients at 1, 3, 5 and 7 years under anticoagulants compared to 21.2%, 21.2%, 58% and 58% without anticoagulants. CONCLUSIONS: In recent non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis associated with local factors, high risk factors for thrombosis are associated with new thrombotic events. Permanent anticoagulation appears beneficial in this high-risk situation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In noncirrhotic portal vein thrombosis (NCPVT) associated with local factors, systematic screening for prothrombotic factors is recommended, but prevalence of the latter is not clearly established, and the risk of recurrent intra or extra splanchnic thromboembolism is poorly described. Thus, interest in permanent anticoagulation therapy is still pending. NCPVT associated with local factors, is a matter of concern for hepatologists, gastroenterologists and digestive surgeons. Due to a lack of knowledge, practices are heterogeneous. Our findings highlight that systematic screening for prothrombotic factors in NCPVT is strongly needed even when associated with local factors, as it may justify long-term anticoagulation therapy for the prevention of new intra or extra-splanchnic thrombotic events in at least one-third of cases. The interest in long-term anticoagulation should be investigated prospectively in the absence of prothrombotic factors with high risk of thrombosis. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT0536064.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease.

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. Results: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs). METHODS: MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Diagnosis and assessment of disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) includes simple steatosis, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), fibrosis, and eventually cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The diagnosis of NAFLD is based on the detection of excess fat disposition in the liver, which is the first step to trigger further evaluation of NAFLD, including necroinflammation and fibrosis. In this review, we discuss non-invasive biomarkers and imaging tools that are currently and potentially available for different features (steatosis, necroinflammation and fibrosis) and disease severity assessment of NAFLD. In the past 2 decades, advances in non-invasive tests of fibrosis have transformed the management of NAFLD. Blood and imaging biomarkers have already been evaluated in multiple studies for the diagnosis of fibrosis and cirrhosis. Among the various histological features of NAFLD, the degree of fibrosis has the strongest correlation with liver-related morbidity and mortality. Non-invasive tests of fibrosis have been shown to predict liver-related outcomes, both in the general population and among patients with NAFLD. What is lacking, however, is good data to support the use of non-invasive tests as monitoring and response biomarkers. With the conclusion of several large phase 3 studies in the next few years, the availability of paired liver biopsy, non-invasive test and clinical outcome data will likely advance the field and shed light on new biomarkers and the way to use various non-invasive tests in a longitudinal manner.

Risk of liver-related events in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) patients with fibrosis: A comparative analysis of various risk stratification criteria.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: International regulatory agencies recommend testing drug therapy for patients with noncirrhotic high-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) because they are at risk of liver-related events (LRE). We aimed to compare the risk of LRE in patients with MASLD stratified for F2-F4 fibrosis and MASH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Overall, 1938 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven MASLD were enrolled. High-risk MASH was defined as MASH with F2-F4 fibrosis. LSM was measured by transient elastography. LRE were recorded during follow-up. Cox multivariate models were used to assess the association between high-risk MASH or F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, of LSM (≥8 or ≥10 Kpa), and of AGILE 3+ with LRE. The diagnostic performance for the prediction of LRE was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The observed 5-year actuarial rate of LRE was 0.4%, 0.2%, 5.1%, and 6.6% in patients with F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH, F0-F1 fibrosis with MASH, F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, and high-risk MASH, respectively. At multivariate Cox regression analysis using F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH as a reference, both F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH [adjusted HR (aHR) 9.96] and high-risk MASH (aHR 10.14) were associated with LRE. In the 1074 patients with available LSM, LSM ≥ 10 kPa (aHR 6.31) or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 (aHR 27.45) independently predicted the development of LRE and had similarly acceptable 5-year area under the receiver operating characteristic to high-risk MASH and F2-F4 fibrosis (0.772, 0.818, 0.739, and 0.780, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of LRE is similar in patients with high-risk MASH and with F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH. The use of LSM ≥ 10 kPa or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 could be an accurate option to identify patients with MASLD worthy to be included in clinical trials.

Liver disease in germline mutations of telomere-related genes: Prevalence, clinical, radiological, pathological features, outcome, and risk factors.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Germline mutations of telomere-related genes (TRG) induce multiorgan dysfunction, and liver-specific manifestations have not been clearly outlined. We aimed to describe TRG mutations-associated liver diseases. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Retrospective multicenter analysis of liver disease (transaminases > 30 IU/L and/or abnormal liver imaging) in patients with TRG mutations. Main measurements were characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors of liver disease in a TRG mutations cohort. The prevalence of liver disease was compared to a community-based control group (n = 1190) stratified for age and matched 1:3 for known risk factors of liver disease. Among 132 patients with TRG mutations, 95 (72%) had liver disease, with associated lung, blood, skin, rheumatological, and ophthalmological TRG diseases in 82%, 77%, 55%, 39%, and 30% of cases, respectively. Liver biopsy was performed in 52/95 patients, identifying porto-sinusoidal vascular disease in 48% and advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in 15%. After a follow-up of 21 months (12-54), ascites, hepato-pulmonary syndrome, variceal bleeding, and HCC occurred in 14%, 13%, 13%, and 2% of cases, respectively. Five-year liver transplantation-free survival was 69%. A FIB-4 score ≥ 3·25 and ≥1 risk factor for cirrhosis were associated with poor liver transplantation-free survival. Liver disease was more frequent in patients with TRG mutations than in the paired control group [80/396, (20%)], OR 12.9 (CI 95%: 7.8-21.3, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: TRG mutations significantly increase the risk of developing liver disease. Although symptoms may be mild, they may be associated with severe disease. Porto-sinusoidal vascular disease and cirrhosis were the most frequent lesions, suggesting that the mechanism of action is multifactorial.

Oesophageal varices predict complications in compensated advanced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Background & Aims: We aimed to evaluate the impact of oesophageal varices (OV) and their evolution on the risk of complications of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) caused by non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We also assessed the accuracy of non-invasive scores for predicting the development of complications and for identifying patients at low risk of high-risk OV. Methods: We performed a retrospective assessment of 629 patients with NAFLD-related cACLD who had baseline and follow-up oesophagogastroduodenoscopy and clinical follow-up to record decompensation, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), and hepatocellular carcinoma. Results: Small and large OV were observed at baseline in 30 and 15.9% of patients, respectively. The 4-year incidence of OV from absence at baseline, and that of progression from small to large OV were 16.3 and 22.4%, respectively. Diabetes and a ≥5% increase in BMI were associated with OV progression. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that small (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% CI 1.47-3.41) and large (HR 3.86, 95% CI 2.34-6.39) OV were independently associated with decompensation. When considering OV status and trajectories, small (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.39-5.05) and large (HR 4.90, 95% CI 2.49-9.63) OV at baseline and/or follow-up were independently associated with decompensation compared with the absence of OV at baseline and/or follow-up. The presence of either small (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.16-6.74) or large (HR 5.29, 95% CI 1.96-14.2) OV was also independently associated with incident PVT. Conclusion: In NAFLD-related cACLD, the presence, severity, and evolution of OV stratify the risk of developing decompensation and PVT. Impact and implications: Portal hypertension is the main driver of liver decompensation in chronic liver diseases, and its non-invasive markers can help risk prediction. The presence, severity, and progression of oesophageal varices stratify the risk of complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Easily obtainable laboratory values and liver stiffness measurement can identify patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be withheld, and can also stratify the risk of liver-related complications.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L). AIMS: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement. METHODS: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events. RESULTS: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.

Practical diagnosis of cirrhosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease using currently available non-invasive fibrosis tests.

Unlike for advanced liver fibrosis, the practical rules for the early non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD remain not well defined. Here, we report the derivation and validation of a stepwise diagnostic algorithm in 1568 patients with NAFLD and liver biopsy coming from four independent cohorts. The study algorithm, using first the elastography-based tests Agile3+ and Agile4 and then the specialized blood tests FibroMeterV3G and CirrhoMeterV3G, provides stratification in four groups, the last of which is enriched in cirrhosis (71% prevalence in the validation set). A risk prediction chart is also derived to allow estimation of the individual probability of cirrhosis. The predicted risk shows excellent calibration in the validation set, and mean difference with perfect prediction is only -2.9%. These tools improve the personalized non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD.

The NAFLD burden on mortality and morbidities in general population: A community-based longitudinal study (NASH-CO study).

BACKGROUND: The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on morbidity and mortality has yet to be documented at the general population level. This study aimed to assess whether NAFLD was associated with morbidities and mortality and to estimate its impact on health status and mortality. METHODS: The study population consisted of 137 206 participants from Constances cohort. Non-invasive diagnosis of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis was performed using the fatty liver index and Forns index, respectively. Constances data were linked to health care and hospitalization data to identify liver-related events, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), extrahepatic cancers (EHC), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD was 18.3% in subjects without other chronic liver diseases, among whom 2.7% had fibrosis. NAFLD after IPTW-weighted remained associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.57), hepatic-related complications (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.99-3.29), CVD (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30-1.55), EHC (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.28) and CKD (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.53-2.07) compared to those without chronic liver diseases risk factors (Non-NAFLD). In the trend analysis over the study period of inclusion and compared to Non-NAFLD, NAFLD has shown a fastest growing cause of hepatic events (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.76 per year), CVD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.12), CKD (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25), and death (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.39-1.50). CONCLUSION: This large community-based cohort showed that NAFLD was associated with excess morbidity and mortality and demonstrated a fastest-growing trend.

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: <-1·455 vs -1·455 to ≤0·676 vs >0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226. FINDINGS: Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression. INTERPRETATION: Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.

Prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement, spleen diameter and platelets in HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at high risk for advanced chronic liver disease and related adverse outcomes. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and on markers of portal hypertension (PH), namely platelets and spleen diameter, in PLWH. METHODS: We combined data from eight international cohorts of PLWH with available non-invasive scores, including LSM and the composite biomarkers liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet ratio score (LSPS), LSM-to-Platelet ratio (LPR) and PH risk score. Incidence and predictors of all-cause mortality, any liver-related event and classical hepatic decompensation were determined by survival analysis, controlling for competing risks for the latter two. Non-invasive scores were assessed and compared using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). RESULTS: We included 1695 PLWH (66.8% coinfected with hepatitis C virus). During a median follow-up of 4.7 (interquartile range 2.8-7.7) years, the incidence rates of any liver-related event, all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation were 13.7 per 1000 persons-year (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4-16.3), 13.8 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 11.6-16.4) and 9.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 8.1-12.2), respectively. The AUROC of LSM was similar to that of the composite biomarkers, ranging between 0.83 and 0.86 for any liver-related event, 0.79-0.85 for all-cause mortality and 0.87-0.88 for classical hepatic decompensation. All individual non-invasive scores remained independent predictors of clinical outcomes in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive scores based on LSM, spleen diameter and platelets predict clinical outcomes in PLWH. Composite biomarkers do not achieve higher prognostic performance compared to LSM alone.

Individual and population screening of varices needing treatment by a simple, safe and accurate test.

BACKGROUND: Several tests have been developed to screen varices needing treatment (VNT) in different screening settings. We aimed to develop simple estimators to quantify VNT risk and spare endoscopy while missing <5% of VNT, adapted to different screenings in the main etiologies. METHODS: 2,368 patients with chronic liver disease were included. The main VNT predictors were platelets, prothrombin index (PI) and LSM. Their interactions led to score construction, LIP: (LSM*45)/(PI*platelets), and BLIP: BMI-adjusted LIP in NAFLD. Scores were categorized either for population (VNT sensitivity ≥95%) or individual (negative predictive value ≥95%) VNT screening. RESULTS: 1) Scores diagnosing VNT. AUROCs were, PLER: 0.767 Anticipate: 0.773 (p=0.059 vs previous), LIP: 0.779 (p=0.136), PLEASE: 0.789 (p=0.196). 2) Population screening performance was in increasing order (with missed VNT rate), Baveno6 criteria: 23.9% (2.5%), Anticipate: 24.5%, p=0.367 vs previous (3.3%), PLER: 27.3%, p<0.001 (3.6%), LIP: 33.4%, p<0.001 (4.2%), PLEASE: 35.2%, p=0.006 (3.6%). In NAFLD, LIP: 38.6%, BLIP: 40.8%, p=0.038. 3) Individual screening performance was, expanded Baveno6 criteria: 42.7%, LIP: 54.1%, p<0.001. In NAFLD, performance was, NAFLD-cirrhosis criteria: 66.7%, BLIP: 74.6%, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: LIP combined simplicity, performance and safety in each etiology. In NAFLD, BMI-adjusted LIP outperformed other tests.

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.

Genetic hemochromatosis is not a risk factor for Restless Legs Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Iron dysmetabolism has long been identified as a primary key factor involved in Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS) pathophysiology and may account for the high prevalence of RLS observed in chronic liver diseases (CLD). Prevalence of RLS was also reported to be high in genetic hemochromatosis (GH) but whether this is due to the unique iron metabolism disorder and to treatment procedure in GH remains unknown. If this assumption is true, then one would hypothesize that RLS prevalence is higher in GH than in another CLD such as chronic hepatitis B (CHB). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective questionnaire-based survey to assess the prevalence of RLS symptoms in consecutive patients with either GH or CHB. Patients who were screened positive for RLS based on the criteria of the International RLS Study Group were further interviewed by telephone and if needed by face to face assessment to confirm RLS diagnosis. RESULTS: Symptoms of confirmed RLS were confirmed in 8.9% of the 101 participants with CHB and in 10% of the 105 patients with GH. Low ferritin levels were not associated with the presence of RLS in both groups nor were the severity of the liver disease. CONCLUSION: GH is not a risk factor for RLS occurrence as any other cause of CLD, as RLS prevalence in both GH and CHB is within the range of RLS prevalence in the general Caucasian population.

Noninvasive assessment of liver disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of simple, noninvasive tests (NITs) in NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH. CONCLUSIONS: LSM and AGILE 3+ individually or in low availability settings in sequential combination after FIB-4 or NFS have a similar good diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and an acceptable diagnostic accuracy for fibrotic NASH in NAFLD patients with T2D.